News & Activities

November 2018:

  • In the first half of November, we had two research visitors, Larissa Beumer from the University of Aarhus (working with Jenny on modelling muskox movement) and Antonello Maruotti from LUMSA University in Rome (an HMM expert).

October 2018:

September 2018:

  • In a new preprint, we investigate whether highly-skilled individuals really do choke under pressure (and apparently they don't – at least not in darts!).

  • Roland took part in another workshop this month, this time organised by the Movement Ecology Special Interest Group within the British Ecological Society.

  • We gave a four-day workshop on HMMs at Bielefeld University, introducing the general HMM machinery but also helping the participants to analyse their own movement data, e.g. on bumblebees, whale sharks, deer & marbled murrelets.

August 2018:

July 2018:

  • Vianey gave an invited talk at the Joint Statistical Meetings in Vancouver.

  • Timo, Jenny, Marius and Matthias attended IWSM 2018, with the former three giving talks (Matthias had a poster). And the Bielefeld stats team brought home another prize: Jenny won the best student paper award!

  • Jenny gave an invited talk at the 50th Workshop on Statistical Computing at Schloss Reisensburg.

  • Marius co-authored a paper investigating the drivers of betting volumes in the English Premier League, which will appear in the Journal of Sports Economics.

  • Vianey, Timo, Jenny, Sina and Roland attended ISEC 2018, with all but Roland giving talks. We had a great time, and Timo even won a best student presentation award!

June 2018:

May 2018:

March 2018:

  • We are advertising a PhD position.

  • In a new arXiv preprint, we reveal a clear but short-lived hot hand effect in professional darts.

  • Vianey Leos Barajas has joined our group. She'll be involved in the activities of the new collaborative research centre ("Sonderforschungsbereich") SFB-TRR 212. Welcome Vianey!

January 2018:

  • Odile gave a talk in the BiCDaS lecture series.

  • A review paper on spline-based nonparametric inference in general state-switching models, co-authored by Roland, Timo and MSc student Sina, was accepted at Statistica Neerlandica.

  • Odile visited the DIW in Berlin with PhD student Kim Zolitschka to analyse spatial structures in health outcomes of SOEP data using geo-locations of participants (as part of DFG projekt "From urban neighbourhood heterogeneities to health inequalities: social, mechanisms, environmental exposures and their interaction").

  • Roland gave a talk in the FSPM2 colloquium at Bielefeld University.

  • In the first year after the re-launch of the StatBeCe in early 2017, 23 researchers or researcher teams — 4 external, 19 from Bielefeld University — contacted us for statistic consulting or collaboration. The head of the StatBeCe, Odile Sauzet, also gave a web-seminar for a graduate school.

December 2017:

  • We are advertising a postdoc position.

  • Roland gave a keynote presentation at moving2gather in Montpellier.

  • Timo gave an invited talk at CMStatistics 2017 in London.

  • A paper on betting market inefficiencies in German football, co-authored by Marius, was accepted at Applied Economics.

  • The FAZ featured an article about Data Science, mentioning our new MSc degree.

  • A paper on Markov-switching GAMs for forecasting operational losses in banking, co-authored by Roland, was accepted at Quantitative Finance.

  • Roland gave a talk in the stats seminar at the Helmut Schmidt University in Hamburg.

November 2017:

  • Odile successfully completed her habilitation!

  • Roland attended a two-day workshop on multi-state models in Berlin. The workshop had been organised by Jutta Gampe and Hein Putter.

  • The DFG is funding a new Bielefeld/Münster Collaborative Research Centre ("Sonderforschungsbereich"), with Roland being one of the principal investigators.

  • Roland gave a career talk at the University of Göttingen – here are his slides.

October 2017:

September 2017:

August 2017:

  • At the end of August, the two-day final review meeting of the proposed Collaborative Research Centre ("Sonderforschungsbereich") NC3 — where Roland is one of the PIs — took place at the ZiF in Bielefeld. Fingers crossed that we'll receive the funding for this exciting initiative!

  • Roland, Jenny and Timo, together with Théo Michelot and Stacy DeRuiter, gave a workshop on hidden Markov models at the University of St Andrews, UK. Two very intense and fun days!

  • Roland was one of three guest editors for a JABES special issue on animal movement modelling, the papers of which are now all online. An overview of the contributions can be found here.

July 2017:

June 2017:

May 2017:

April 2017:

March 2017:

February 2017:

January 2017:

  • Odile Sauzet, together with Oliver Razum, won a DFG grant to work on a research project entitled "From urban neighbourhood heterogeneities to health inequalities: social mechanisms, environmental exposures and their interaction".

December 2016:

November 2016:

  • We created the virtual research group EcoHMM, the aim of which is to synthesise research on the application of hidden Markov models to ecological data, which we hope will lead to many successful future collaborations.

  • Jennifer Pohle, Timo Adam, Christian Schellhase and Roland Langrock participated in BI.teach, with Roland discussing some key aspects of good teaching.

October 2016:

September 2016:

August 2016:

  • Paper accepted at Methods in Ecology and Evolution on modelling animal accelerometer data using HMMs, with illustrations using real data collected on eagles and sharks (link to the paper).

July 2016:

June 2016:

  • Roland Langrock published a book with Chapman and Hall: Hidden Markov Models for Time Series — An Introduction Using R (2nd Edition).

  • Timo Adam has joined the group as a PhD student. Timo wrote his Master's thesis on nonparametric methods for Markov-switching regression models and is going to continue working in this area during his PhD. Welcome Timo!

  • Jennifer Pohle gave a talk in the sociology seminar series "Quantitative Methods and Statistics" at Bielefeld University — the title of her talk was "Probit and mixed logit models for panel data - a theoretical and simulation comparison".

  • Roland Langrock gave a talk on HMMs to members of the chemical ecology group at Bielefeld University.

May 2016:

  • Odile Sauzet has joined the group. Odile will be in charge of the statistical consulting unit (StatBeCe). Welcome Odile!
  • Christian Schellhase attended the conference "Dependence Modeling in Finance, Insurance and Environmental Science" in Munich and gave a talk on "Nonparametric Estimation of Counterfactual Distributions for the Munich Rent Survey".

April 2016:

  • The Centre for Statistics (ZeSt) at Bielefeld University held a workshop for quantitative PhD students, with the students presenting and discussing their research. It is planned to have another such workshop in early October.

  • Roland Langrock gave a career talk to PhD students and postdocs at Bielefeld University — here are his slides (in German).

  • Paper accepted at Methods in Ecology and Evolution on the movement of the legendary wild haggis animal our R package for analyzing movement data using HMMs (link to the paper).

  • Jennifer Pohle has joined the group as a PhD student. She recently completed her MSc in Statistical Science here at Bielefeld University. Welcome Jenny!

March 2016:

February 2016:

January 2016:

December 2015:

November 2015:

October 2015:


New paper

Paper accepted at Statistical Modelling on match-fixing warning systems in football.

New Paper

Paper accepted at the Journal of Sports Economics on the drivers of betting volumes in the English Premier League.

New member of the group

Sina Mews has joined the group as a PhD student.

New paper

Paper accepted at Movement Ecology on foraging strategies of reef sharks.

New paper

Paper accepted at Statistica Neerlandica on nonparametric inference in HMM-type models.

New paper

Paper accepted at Applied Economics on betting market inefficiencies in German football.


Roland is a PI within a new "Sonderforschungsbereich".

Karl Peter Grotemeyer Prize

Roland Langrock will be awarded the Karl Peter Grotemeyer Prize.