News & Activities

January 2020:

December 2019:

  • Marius gave an invited talk in a sports analytics session at the CMS-Statistics conference in London. His trip was funded by a DAAD stipend.

November 2019:

  • Matthias' paper on demand forecasting using distributional regression was accepted at the European Journal of Operational Research.

  • Timo and Roland attended a workshop on lake fish telemetry held at the Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries and Humboldt University, both giving talks.

October 2019:

September 2019:

  • Our paper investigating the potential existence of a hot hand effect in professional darts was accepted for publication in the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Series A).

  • The HMM book co-authored by Roland got a very nice review in Biometrics.

  • Odile published a paper in BMC Public Health on potential biases in cohort-based comparisons of migrants' health.

  • We were again very busy this month giving talks and workshops/tutorials:

    • Matthias gave a talk on automated model selection for demand forecasting at the Annual Conference of The Operational Research Society in Kent (UK);

    • Sina gave an invited talk on continuous-time multi-state capture-recapture models at the annual conference of the Royal Statistical Society in Belfast (UK);

    • Roland gave a talk on the hot hand in darts at the German Statistical Week in Trier, and lectured in the 2nd Bielefeld-Dortmund Summer School on Modern Topics in Time Series Analysis;

    • Timo gave an invited talk on Markov-switching quantile regression at the CLADAG (Classification and Data Analysis Group) meeting in Cassino (Italy);

    • Finally, Timo and Sina spent a week at the Luke Natural Resources Institute Finland in Helsinki, giving an HMM tutorial and a talk, respectively. They had been invited by Juha Heikkinen.

August 2019:

July 2019:

  • Roland was a guest editor of a METRON special issue on HMMs — here is the editorial giving an overview of the papers.

  • We were very active in this year's conference season:

    • Roland gave a keynote talk at an NCSE meeting in Edinburgh;

    • Marius gave a talk at MathSport2019 in Athens;

    • Sina gave a talk at the Statistical Computing workshop at Schloss Reisensburg;

    • Jenny, Marius, Sina and Timo gave talks at the IWSM 2019 in Guimarães — here Sina won the best student presentation award!


June 2019:

May 2019:

  • A paper led by Timo (and co-authored by Roland and former group member Vianey, among others) was accepted for publication in Methods in Ecology and Evolution. In this work, hierarchical HMMs are proposed as a versatile framework for modelling multi-scale behavioural time series data.

April 2019:

  • A paper by Sina, which investigates the role of self-beliefs and other personality traits on mathematics performance within the PISA study, was accepted for publication in the Zeitschrift für Erziehungswissenschaft.

  • Timo was awarded funding by the DAAD to attend the 7th Nordic-Baltic Biometric Conference in Vilnius, Lithuania, in June.

  • We held the seventh ZeSt workshop for stats or stats-related PhD students at Bielefeld University, with Sina, Jenny, Matthias and Marius giving talks on some of their current research projects.

March 2019:

January 2019:

December 2018:

November 2018:

  • Timo took part and gave a talk in a workshop on fish telemetry in České Budějovice, where there was huge demand for his HMM expertise.

  • In the first half of November, we had two research visitors, Larissa Beumer from the University of Aarhus (working with Jenny on modelling muskox movement) and Antonello Maruotti from LUMSA University in Rome (an HMM expert).

September 2018:

  • In a new preprint, we investigate whether highly-skilled individuals really do choke under pressure (and apparently they don't – at least not in darts!).

  • Roland took part in another workshop this month, this time organised by the Movement Ecology Special Interest Group within the British Ecological Society.

  • We gave a four-day workshop on HMMs at Bielefeld University, introducing the general HMM machinery but also helping the participants to analyse their own movement data, e.g. on bumblebees, whale sharks, deer & marbled murrelets.

August 2018:

July 2018:

June 2018:

May 2018:

March 2018:

  • In a new arXiv preprint, we reveal a clear but short-lived hot hand effect in professional darts.

  • Vianey Leos Barajas has joined our group. She'll be involved in the activities of the new collaborative research centre ("Sonderforschungsbereich") SFB-TRR 212. Welcome Vianey!

January 2018:

  • Odile gave a talk in the BiCDaS lecture series.

  • A review paper on spline-based nonparametric inference in general state-switching models, co-authored by Roland, Timo and MSc student Sina, was accepted at Statistica Neerlandica.

  • Odile visited the DIW in Berlin with PhD student Kim Zolitschka to analyse spatial structures in health outcomes of SOEP data using geo-locations of participants (as part of DFG projekt "From urban neighbourhood heterogeneities to health inequalities: social, mechanisms, environmental exposures and their interaction").

  • Roland gave a talk in the FSPM2 colloquium at Bielefeld University.

  • In the first year after the re-launch of the StatBeCe in early 2017, 23 researchers or researcher teams — 4 external, 19 from Bielefeld University — contacted us for statistic consulting or collaboration. The head of the StatBeCe, Odile Sauzet, also gave a web-seminar for a graduate school.


New DFG project

The DFG is funding a new 2-year project on the detection of match-fixing.

New paper (on darts)

Paper accepted at PLOS ONE on choking under pressure in darts.

New paper (on demand forecasting)

Paper accepted at EJOR on demand forecasting in retailing.

New paper (on the hot hand)

Paper accepted at JRSS-A on the hot hand in darts.

New paper (on HMMs)

Paper accepted at METRON on flexible estimation on HMMs for count data.

New paper (on (H)HMMs)

Paper accepted at Methods in Ecology and Evolution on hierarchical HMMs for multi-scale behavioural data.

New paper (on seals)

Paper accepted at Scientific Reports on interactions between grey seals and fishing vessels.

New paper (on match fixing)

Paper accepted at Statistical Modelling on match-fixing warning systems in football.